Как избежать климатических катастроф?: План Б 4.0: спасение цивилизации - Лестер Браун

“Scientists Meeting in Tunis Called for Priority Activities to Curb Desertification”, UN News Service, 21 June 2006.

160

Alan Cowell, “Migrants Found off Italy Boat Piled with Dead”, International Herald Tribune, 21 October 2003.

161

Там же.

162

Roberta Russo, “UNHCR Steps up Efforts to Stem Gulf of Aden Crossings As Numbers Mount”, News Stories (Geneva: U. N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 22 May 2009); Helene Caux and William Spindler, “Dozens Dead or Missing in Gulf of Aden; Boat People Figures Rise”, News Stories (Geneva, UNHCR, 4 November 2008).

163

Miranda Leitsinger, “African Migrants Die an Ocean Away”, Washington Post, 2 June 2006; Mar Roman, “A New Record for African Risking Boat Route to Europe”, Washington Post, 4 September 2006.

164

Ginger Thompson, «Mexico Worries About Its Own Southern Border”, New York Times, 18 June 2006; Instituto Nacional de Migracioˆn, Estadisticas Migratorias, электронная база данных — см.: www.inami.gob.mx, updated 30 April 2009.

165

“Mexico’s Immig ration Problem: The K amik azes of Pover ty, The Economist, 31 January 2004.

166

Frank Bruni, “Off Sicily, Tide of Bodies Roils Immigrant Debate”, New York Times, 23 September 2002; Flora Botsford, “Spain Recovers Drowned Migrants”, BBC News, 25 April 2002; “Boat Sinks Off Coast of Turkey: One Survivor and 7 Bodies Found”, Agence France-Presse, 22 December 2003; Mary Jordan and Kevin Sullivan, “Trade Brings Riches, But Not to Mexico’s Poor”, Washington Post, 22 March 2003; Robert McLeman and Barry Smit, “Climate Change, Migration and Security”, Commentary No. 86 (Ottawa: Canadian Security Intelligence Service, 2 March 2004); количество покинутых сельских районов взято из электронной базы данных: FAO, PopSTAT — см.: faostat.fao.org/site/550/default.aspx, updated February 2009; Coalicioˆn de Derechos Humanos, “Arizona Recovered Bodies” — см.: www.derechoshumanosaz.net, updated 15 June 2009.

167

Данные о заброшенных деревнях в Индии взяты из: Shah et al., op. cit. note 49; U. N. Population Division, op. cit. note 8.

168

Послание, отправленное Ваном автору по электронной почте: Wang, op. cit. note 29; Wang, “The Process and Its Control of Sandy Desertification in Northern China”, op. cit. note 29.

169

Souhail Karam, “Drought-Hit North Africa Seen Hunting for Grains”, Reuters, 15 July 2005; African Development Bank and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, African Economic Outlook 2007 (Tunis and Paris: 2007), p. 386.

170

Iranian News Agency, op. cit. note 25; Government of Nigeria, op. cit. note 64.

171

Данные по Бразилии и Мексике взяты из доклада: Heitor Matallo, “General Approach to the Costs of Desertification”, presentation at the International Workshop on the Cost of Inaction and Opportunities for Investment in Arid, Semi-Arid and Dry Sub-Humid Areas”, Rome, 4–5 December 2006; см. также таблицу 5–2 в работе: Brown, op. cit. note 5, pp. 86–87.

172

Gordon McCranahan, Deborah Balk, and Bridget Anderson, “The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones”, Environment and Urbanization, vol. 18, No. 1 (April 2007), pp. 17–37; International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), “Climate Change: Study Maps Those at Greatest Risk from Cyclones and Rising Seas”, press release (London: 28 March 2007).

173

J. Hansen, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, “Global Temperature Anomalies in 0.1 C” — см.: data.giess.nasa.gov/gistemp/ tabledata/GLB. Ts.txt, updated June 2009; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U. K.: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 13, 15.

174

IPCC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 5–7; U. N. Environment Programme (UNEP), Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (Nairobi: 2007), p. 103; W. T. Pfeffer, J. T. Harper, and S. O’Neel, “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contribution to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise”, Science, vol. 321 (5 September 2008), pp. 1340–1343; “Sea Levels Will Rise 1.5 Meters by 2100”, NewScientist.com 16 April 2008; Stefan Rahmstorf, “A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Sea-Level Rise”, Science, vol. 315 (19 January 2007), pp. 368–370.

175

IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U. K.: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 241–245.

176

International Energy Agency (IEA), Oil Market Report (Paris: August 2001) — эта публикация содержит данные о нефти, продуктах из сжиженного природного газа и прибылях от переработки; данные за прошлые годы взяты из публикации: U. S. Department of Defense, Twentieth Century Petroleum Statistics (Washington, DC: 1945), эти данные воспроизведены в статье: Christopher Flavin and Seth Dunn, «Reinventing the Energy System”, опубликованной в книге: Lester R. Brown, Christopher Flavin, and Hilary French, State of the World 1999 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999), p. 25; данные о потреблении угля взяты из статьи: Seth Dunn, “Coal Use Continues Rebound”, опубликованной в книге: Lester R. Brown et al., Vital Signs 1998 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1998), pp. 52–53.

177

IEA, Oil Market Report (Paris: June 2009); послание, отправленное Колином Дж. Кэмпбеллом Джигнашу Рана по электронной почте, Earth Policy Institute, 18 June 2009.

178

IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 (Paris: 2008), p. 507.

179

Hansen, op. cit. note 1.

180

IPCC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 27, 135, 141, 542.

181

Данные о концентрациях, наблюдавшихся в 2008 г., взяты из работы: Pieter Tans, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide — Mauna Loa”, NOAA/ESRL — см.: www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends, просмотрено автором 7 апреля 2009 г.; R. A. Houghton, “Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes: 1850–2005” — в книге: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, TRENDS: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2008); Josep G. Canadell et al., “Contributions to Accelerating Atmospheric CO2 Growth from Economic Activity, Carbon Intensity, and Efficiency of Natural Sinks”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 104, No. 47 (20 November, 2007), pp. 18, 866–870.

182

Sarah Simpson, “The Arctic Thaw Could Make Global Warming Worse”, Scientific American: Earth 3.0, June 2009; Global Carbon Project, “Supersize Deposits of Frozen Carbon Threat to Climate Change”, press release (Canberra, Australia: 1 July 2009).

183

Veerabhadran Ramanathan et al., Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia (Nairobi: UNEP, 2008), pp. 2, 10.

184

Там же, pp. 393–396; Yun Qian et al., “Effects of Soot-Induced Snow Albedo Change on Snowpack and Hydrological Cycle in Western United States Based on Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry and Regional Climate Simulations”, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 114, issue D3 (14 February 2009); Jane Qiu, “The Third Pole”, Nature, vol. 454 (24 July 2008, pp. 393–396); Frances C. Moore, “Climate Change and Air Pollution: Exploring the Synergies and Potential for Mitigation in Industrializing Countries”, Sustainability, vol. 1 No. 1 (24 March 2009), pp. 43–54.

185

Elizabeth Rosenthal, “Third-World Soot Stove is Target in Climate Fight”, New York Times, 16 April 2009.

186

IPCC, op. cit, note 1, pp. 13, 15; Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, eds., Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009), pp. 22–23.

187

A. P. Sokolov et al., “Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (Without Policy) and Climate Parameters”, Journal of Climate, в печати.

188

International Alliance of Research Universities, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions, Synthesis Report from International Scientific Congress (Copenhagen: University of Copenhagen, 2009), pp. 18–19.

189

“Awful Weather We’re Having”, The Economist, 2 October 2004; Richard Milne, “Hurricanes Cost Munich Re Reinsurance”, Financial Times, 6 November 2004.

190

U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply and Distribution, электронная база данных — см.: www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, обновлено 11 июня 2007 г.; Janet Larsen, «Record Heat Wave in Europe Takes 35,000 Lives”, Eco-Economy Update (Washinghton, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 9 October 2003); USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, “Crop Production”, news release (Washington, DC: 12 August 2005).

191

Janet Larsen, “Setting the Record Straight: More than 52,000 Europeans Died from Heat in Summer 2003”, Eco-Economy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 26 July 2006); National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, The 9/11 Commission Report (Washington, DC: U. S. Government Printing Office, 2004).

192

National Center for Atmospheric Research and UCAR Office of Programs, “Drought’s Growing Reach: NCAR Study Points to Global Warming as Key Factor”, press release (Boulder, CO: 10 January 2005); Aiguo Dai, Kevin E. Trenberth, and Taotao Qian, “A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming”, Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 5 (December 2004), pp. 1, 117–130.

193

Susan Solomon et al., “Irreversible Climate Change Due to Carbon Dioxide Emissions”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 106, No. 6 (10 February 2009), pp. 1, 704–709.

194

Donald McKenzie et al., “Irreversible Climate Change, Wildfire, and Conservation:, Conservation Biology, vol. 18, No. 4 (August 2004), pp. 890–902.

195

Camile Parmesan and Hector Galbraith, Observed Impacts of Global Climate Change in the U. S. (Arlington, VA: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2004); DeNeen L. Brown, “Signs of Thaw in a Desert of Snow”, Washington Post, 28 May 2002.

196

Patty Glick, Fish Out of Water: A Guide to Global Warming and Pacific Northwest Rivers (Seattle, WA: National Wildlife Federation, March 2005); Elizabeth Gillespie, “Global Warming May Be Making Rivers Too Hot: Cold-Water Fish Will Struggle, Report Says”, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 24 March 2005.

197

Douglas B. Inkley et al., Global Climate Change and Wildlife in North America (Betesda, MD: The Wildlife Society, December 2004); J. R. Pegg, “Global Warming Disrupting North American Wildlife”, Environment News Services 16 December 2004.

198

UNEP, op. cit. note 2; Gordon McCranahan et al., “The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones”, Environment and Urbanization, vol. 18, No. 1 (April 2007), pp. 17–37.

199

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), Impacts of a Warming Arctic (Cambridge, U. K.: Cambridge University Press, 2004); “Rapid Arctic Warming Brings Sea Level Rise, Extinctions”, Environment News Service, 8 November, 2004.