Как избежать климатических катастроф?: План Б 4.0: спасение цивилизации - Лестер Браун

3

U. N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). “Soaring Food Prices: Facts, Perspectives, Impacts, and Actions Required” — доклад, представленный на Конференции высокого уровня по проблемам мировой продовольственной безопасности “Вызовы, порождаемые изменением климата, и биоэнергетика», Рим, 3–5 июня 2008 г.; данные о прежних ценах на пшеницу, кукурузу и соевые бобы взяты из интернет-публикации TFC Commodity Charts “Grain & Oilseed Commodities Futures”, где Чикагский совет торговли дает данные по фьючерсам (см. futures.tradingcharts.com/grains_oilseeds.html; просмотрены автором 16 января 2009 г.; текущие цены на пшеницу, кукурузу и соевые бобы взяты из интернет-публикации данных о фьючерсах Чикагского совета торговли, публикуемых CME Group в Commodity Products в разные даты (см. сайт www.cmegroup.com); цены на рис взяты из работы Натана Чайлдса и Кэтрин Волдуин Rice Oulook (Washington, DC: U. S. Department of Agriculture USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS) 11 June 2009), p. 26.

4

Резолюция «Декларация тысячелетия ООН», принятая Генеральной Ассамблеей ООН 8 сентября 2008 г.; FAO, “1.02 Billion People Hungry”, press release (Rome: 19 June 2009).

5

U. N. Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database. — см. esa.un.org/unpp, updated 11 March 2009.

6

USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, электронная база данных, см. www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, updated 12 May 2009; U. N. Population Division, op.cit, note 5.

7

Ward’s Automotive Group. World Motor Vehicle Data 2008 (Southfield, MI: 2008), pp.239–242; USDA, op. cit. note 6; F. O. Licht. “Too Much Too Soon? World Ethanol Production to Break Another Record in 2005”, World Enthanol and Biofuels Report, vol. 3, No. 20 (21 June 2005), pp. 429–435; U. S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA). “World Crude Oil Prices” и “U. S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices” — см.: tonto.eia.doe.gov; просмотрены автором 31 июля 2007 г.

8

Потери почвенного слоя пахотных угодий являются оценкой автора: USDA, op. cit. note 6; FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture 1995 (Rome: 1995), p. 175.

9

Lester R. Brown. Outgrowing the Earth (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2004), pp. 101–102; Peter H. Gleik et al., The World’s Water 2004–2005 (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2004), p. 88; U. N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5; Andrew England, “Saudis to Phase Out Wheat Production”, Financial Times, 10 April 2008; John Briscoe, India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future (New Delhi: World Bank, 2005); World Bank. China: Agenda for Water Sector Strategy for North China (Washington, DC: April 2001), pp. VII, XI.

10

Shaobing Peng et al., “Rice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from Global Warming”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 6 July 2004, pp. 9, 971–975; J. Hansen, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, “Global Temperature Anomalies in 0.1 C”, — см.: data. gies.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB. Ts.txt, updated April 2009; “Summary for Policymakers” in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U. K.: Cambridge University Press, 2007), p. 13.

11

U. N. Environment Programme, Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (Nairobi: 2007); Lester R. Brown, “Melting Mountain Glaciers Will Shrink Grain Harvests in China and India”, Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 20 March 2008); USDA, op. cit. note 6.

12

W. T. Pfeffer, J. T. Harper, and S. O’Neel, “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise”, Science, vol. 321 (5 September 2008), pp. 1, 340–343; James Hansen, “Scientific Reticence and Sea Level Rise”, Environmental Research Letters, vol. 2 (24 May 2007); Environmental Change and Forced Scenarios Project, “Preliminary Finds from the EACH-FOR Project on Environmentally Induced Migration” (September 2008), p. 16; U. N. Development Programme, Human Development Report 2007/2008 (New York: 2007), p. 100; World Bank, World Development Report 1999/2000 (New York: Oxford University Press, September 1999); USDA, op. cit. note 6; U. N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5.

13

FAO, FISHSTAT Plus, electronic database — см. www.fao.org, updated February 2009.

14

Wang Tao, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute (CAREERI), Chinese Academy of Sciences, сообщение, отправленное автору 4 апреля 2004 г.; Wang Tao, “The Process and Its Control of Sandy Desertification in Northern China”, CAREERI, Chinese Academy of Sciences, seminar on desertification, held in Lanzhou, China, May 2002; “Scientists Meeting in Tunes Called for Priority Activities to Curb Desertification”, UN News Service, 21 June 2006.

15

Noel Gollehon and William Quinby, “Irrigation in the American West: Area, Water and Economic Activity”, Water Resources Development, vol. 16, No, 2 (2002), pp. 187–195; Sandra Postel, Last Oasis (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1997), p. 137: R. Srinivasan, “The Politics of Water”, Info Change Agenda, issue 3 (Octobert 2005); Water Strategist, various issues — см.: www.waterstrategist.com; “China Politics: Growing Tensions Over Scarce Water”, The Economist, 21 June 2004.

16

USDA, op. cit. note 6; данные за период до 1960 г. взяты из: USDA, in Worldwatch Institute, Signposts 2001, CD-ROM (Washington, DC: 2001).

17

USDA, op. cit note 6; данные за период до 1960 г. взяты из USDA, op. cit. Note 16.

18

USDN, op. cit. note 6; Kenneth G. Cassman et al., “Meeting Cereal Demand While Protecting Natural Resources and Improving Environmental Quality”, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, November 2003, pp. 322, 350; Thomas R. Sinclair, “Limits to Crop Yield?” — в сборнике: American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Physiology and Determination of Crop Yield (Madison, WIU: 1994), pp. 509–532.

19

Peter M. Vitousek et al., “Human Appropriation of the Products of Photosynthesis”, BioScience, vol. 36, No. 6 (June 1986), pp. 368–373.

20

USDA, op. cit. note 6; U. N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5.

21

Financial Times, “In Depth: The Global Food Crisis” — см. www.ft.com/foodprices, updated 6 May 2008; USDA, op. cit. note 6.

22

Office of the President, Republic of the Philippines, “RP Assured of 1.5 Million Metric Tons of Rice Supply from Vietnam Annually”, press release (Manila: 26 March 2008); “Yemen to Seek Australian Food Cooperation”, WorldGrain.com, 19 May 2008; “Indonesia Set to Become Major Rice Exporter Next Year”, WorldGrain.com, 1 July 2008; “Bahrain to Own Rice Farms in Thailand”, TradeArabia, online business newswire, 30 May 2008; Javier Blas, “Nations Make Secret Deals Over Grain”, Financial Times, 10 April 2008; Maria Kolesnikova and Alaa Shahine, “Russia, Egypt Agree on Wheat Deals to Boost Shipments”, Bloomberg, 23 June 2009.

23

GRAIN, Seized! The 2008 Land Grab for Food and Financial Security (Barcelona: October 2008); USDA, op. cit note 6; “Lybia Agrees Deal to Grow Wheat in Ukraine”, Reuters, 27 May 2009.

24

Joachim von Braun and Ruth Meinzen-Dick, “Land Grabbing” by Foreign Investors in Developing Countries, Policy Brief № 13 (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, April 2009).

25

GRAIN, op. cit. note 23; von Braun and Meinzen-Dick, op. cit. note 24; “Buying Farmland Abroad: Outsourcing’s Third Wave”, The Economist, 21 May 2009.

26

GRAIN, op. cit. note 23; “Land Deals in Africa and Asia: Cornering Foreign Fields”, The Economist, 21 May 2009; Javier Blas, “Saudis Get First Taste of Foreign Harvest”, Financial Times, 4 March 2009; “Saudi’s Hadco Eyes Sudan, Turkey in Food Security Push”, Reuters, 17 February 2009; U. N. World Food Programme, “Countries” — см.: www.wfp.org/counries, просмотрено автором 4 июня 2009 г.

27

“Saudis Invest 1.3 Billion in Indonesian Agriculture”, Reuters, 24 March 2009; von Braun and Meinzen-Dick, op. cit. note 24.

28

Von Braun and Meinzen-Dick, op. cit. note 24; USDA, op. cit. note 6; U. N. Population Division, op. cit note 5; “China ‘May Lease Foreign Fields”, BBC News, 29 April 2008; Gurbir Singh, “China is Buying Farm Lands Abroad to Ensure Food Supplies at Home”, Business World News (New Delhi, 16 May 2008; “China Eyes Russian Farmlands in Food Push”, Russia Today (Moscow), 11 May 2008; GRAIN, op. cit. note 23, p.3; “Govt to Lease Land for FDI in Agriculture”, Myanmar Times, 11–17 September 2006; U. N. World Food Programme, op. cit note 26.

29

USDA, op. cit. note 6; GRAIN, op. cit. note 23, pp. 4, 5; “Buying Farmland Abroad”, op. cit. note 25; Javier Blas, “Hyundai Plants Seoul’s Flag on 50,000ha of Russia”, Financial Times, 15 April 2009.

30

Erik Ansink and Arjan Ruijs, “Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements”, Fondazione Ene Enrico Mattei, Working Paper No. 16.2007 (February 2007), pp. 21–23.

31

“Memorandum of Understanding on Construction of Agriculture Technology Transfer Center and Grain Production and Processing Base in the Philippines” — см.: www.newsbreak.com.ph/dmdocuments/special%20coverages/China%20Agri/Fuhua%20MOU.pdf, signed 15 January 2007; “China: Going Outward’ for Food Security”, Strator, 30 April 2008; Luzi Ann Javier, “China’s Appetite for Filipino Paddies Breeds Farmer Opposition”, Bloomberg, 21 February 2008; Tom Burgis and Javier Blas, “Madagascar Craps Daewoo Farm Deal”, Financial Times, 18 March 2009: “Zambia’s Opposition Condemns Reported Chinese Biofuels Project”, Earth Times, 2 April 2009.

32

GRAIN, op. cit note 23, p. 10; “Buying Farmland Abroad”, op. cit. note 25.

33

Amena Bakr, “Pakistan Offers Farmland to Foreign Investors”, Reuters, 20 April 2009.

34

Michiyo Nakamoto and Javier Blas, “G8 Move to Halt ‘Farmland Grabbing”, Financial Times, 26 May 2009; von Braun and Meinzen-Dick, op. cit. note 24.

35

USDA, op. cit note 6; U. N. Population Division, op. cit. note 5.

36

“Cereal Offenders”, The Economist, 27 May 2008; “Commodities Boom Recalls 70s Surge; Prices Not There Yet”, Dow Jones Newswires, 27 June 2008; Fred H. Sanderson, “The Great Food Fumble”, Science, vol. 188 (9 May 1975), pp. 503–509; U. S. Department of the Treasury, “Report on Foreign Holdings of U. S. Securities at End-June 2008”, press release (Washington, DC: 30 April 2009); U. S. Department of the Treasury, “Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities”; сведенные в таблицы текущие и прошлые данные см.: www.treasury.gov/tic, updated 16 January 2009.

37

James Bandler and Nicholas Varchaver, “How Bernie Did It”, Fortune, vol. 159, No. 10 (11 May 2009); “The Madoff Affair: Going Down Quietly”, The Economist, 12 May 2009.

38

Angus Maddison, “Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1–2006 AD” — см.: www.ggdc.net/maddison, updated March 2009; Mathis Wackernagel et al., “Tracking the Ecological Overshoot of the Human Economy”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 99, No. 14 (9 July 2002), pp. 9, 266–271; Global Footprint Network, WWF, and Zoological Society of London, Living Planet Report 2008 (Gland, Switzerland: WWF, October 2008), p. 2.