Как избежать климатических катастроф?: План Б 4.0: спасение цивилизации - Лестер Браун

248

James Pincero, “If We Really Have the Oil”, Bloomberg Wealth Manager, September 2002, p. 45; Klare, op. cit. note 75; Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist, “Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production”, National Resources Research, vol. 12, No. 4 (December 2003), p. 222; Walter Youngquist, GeoDestinies: The Inevitable Control of Earth Resources over Nations and Individuals (Portland: National Book Company, 1997); A. M. Samsam Bakhtiari, “World Oil Production Capacity Model Suggests Output Peak by 2006–07”, Oil and Gas Journal, 26 April 2004, pp. 18–20.

249

Fredrick Robelius, Giant Oil Fields — The Highway to Oil (Uppsala, Sweden: Uppsala University Press, 9 March 2007), pp. 81–84; Petrobras Brazil, “Production Goes on Stream in Tupi: Year I of a New Era” — см.: www2.petrobras.com.br/Petrobras/ingles/area_tupi.asp, просмотрено 17 июня 2009 г.

250

Guy Chazan and Neil King Jr., “Russian Oil Slump Stirs Supply Jitters”, Wall Street Journal, 15 April 2008; данные о снижении добычи нефти в России см. в: IEA, Oil Market Report (Paris: May 2009).

251

Vidal, op. cit. note 75.

252

Gargi Chakrabarry, “Shale’s New Hope”, Rocky Mountain News, 18 October 2004; Walter Youngquist, “Alterantive Energy Sources” — в книге: Lee C. Gerhard, Patrick Leahy, and Victor Yannacone, eds., Sustainability of Energy and Water through the 21st Century, Proceedings of the Arbor Day Farm Conference, 8–11 October 2000 (Lawrence, KS: Kansas Geological Survey, 2002), p. 65.

253

Rober Collier, “Canadian Oil Sands: Vast Reserves Second to Saudi Arabia Will Keep America Moving, But at a Steep Environmental Cost”, San Francisco Chronicle, 22 May 2005; Alberta Department of Energy, Alberta’s Oil Sands, 2008 (Edmonton, Alberta: June 2009); BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009 (London: June 2009) p. 11; Robin Pagnamenta, “Canadian Oil-Sand Mines Stuck as Crude Price Plummets”, The Times (London), 5 January 2009; Jad Mouawad, “Big Oil Projects Out in Jeopardy by Fall in Prices”, New York Times, 16 December 2008.

254

Sheila McNulty, “Tar Sands Refinery Projects Face a Sticky Future”, Financial Times, 5 January 2009; Collier, op. cit note 81; Alfred J. Cavallo, “Oil: Caveat Empty”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 61, No. 3 (May/ June 2005), pp. 16–18; Richard Heinberg, “The End of the Oil Age”, Earth Island Journal, vol. 18, No. 3 (fall 2003).

255

IEA, op. cit. note, p. 507.

256

World Health Organization, “Air Pollution”, Fact Sheet 187 (Geneva: revised September 2000); Janet Larsen, “Coal Takes Heavy Human Toll: Some 25,100 U. S. Deaths from Coal Use Largely Preventable”, Eco-Economy Update (Washington DC: Earth Policy Institute, 24 August 2004).

257

U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Science and Technology, “National Listing of Fish Advisories: 2005–06 National Listing”, fact sheet (Washington, DC: July 2007).

258

Jonathan Watts, “Beijing Blames Pollutants for Rise in Killer Cancers”, Guardian (London), 22 May 2007.

259

Barbara Demick, “China Blames Pollution for Surge in Birth Defects”, Los Angeles Times, 2 February 2009; Steven Mufson, “Asian Nations Could Outspace U. S. in Developing Clean Energy”, Washington Post, 16 July 2009.

260

Keith Bradsher, “Green Power Takes Root in the Chinese Desert”, New York Times, 2 July 2009.

261

IEA, op. cit. note 6, p. 507.

262

Paul Hawken, Commencement Address to the Class of 2009, University of Portland, Portland, OR, 3 May 2009.

263

Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind 2008 Report (Brussels, 2009), pp. 3, 56; Erik Shuster, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants (Pittsburgh, PA: U. S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory, January 2009); “Nuclear Dips in 2008”, World Nuclear News, 29 May 2009; один мегаватт установленной мощности, генерирующей энергию с помощью ветра, вырабатывает достаточно электроэнергии для снабжения 300 домов — см.: American Wind Energy Association “U. S. Wind Energy Installations Reach New Milestone” (Washington, DC, 14 August 2006), press release; число домов вычислено на основе данных о среднем размере домашнего хозяйства в США, полученных из публикации: U. S. Census Bureau “2005–2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates — Data Profile Highlights” — см.: factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ACSSAFFFacts (просмотрено 9 апреля 2009 г.) и данным о населении из электронной базы данных того же Бюро State and Country QuickFacts, обновленной 20 февраля 2009 г. — см.: quickfacts.census.gov.

264

Поведение двуокиси углерода смоделировано на основе данных о продуктах горения ископаемых видов топлива, приведенных в работе: Tom Boden, Gregg Marland, “Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751 — 06” и “Preliminary 2006–2007 Global and National Estimates by Extrapolation”, обе работы опубликованы в сборнике: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC), Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), 2009), а также на основе данных об изменении выбросов в зависимости от изменения характера землепользования, приведенных в статье R. A. Houghton, “Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes” — см.: CDIAC, Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global change (Oak Ridge, TN: ORNL, 2008), ниспадающая кривая приведена в J. Hansen и др., “Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study”, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 7 (2007), pp. 2, 287–312; данные о текущей концентрации СО2 в атмосфере взяты из статьи: Pieter Tans, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide — Mauna Loa”, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, — см.: www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends просмотрена автором 7 апреля 2009.

265

James Hansen et al., “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?” Open Atmospheric Science Journal, vol. 2 (15 October 2008), pp. 217–231.

266

Lester R. Brown, “Creating New Jobs, Cutting Carbon Emissions, and Reducing Oil Imports by Investing in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency”, Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 11 December 2008).

267

S. Pacala, R. Socolow, “Stabilizing Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies”, Science, vol. 305 (13 August 2004), pp. 968–972.

268

Так же.

269

International Alliance of Research Universities, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, Synthesis Report from International Scientific Congress (Copenhagen: University of Copenhagen, 2009).

270

U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and DOE, “Energy Star Change a Light, Change the World”, fact sheet (Washington DC: 23 April 2007); Larry Kinney, Lighting Systems in Southwestern Homes: Problems and Opportunities, prepared for DOE Building America Program through the Midwest Research Institute, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) (Boulder, CO: Southwest Energy Efficiency Project, June 2005), pp. 4–5.

271

Alice McKeown, “Strong growth in compact Fluorescent Bulbs Reduces Electricity Demand”, Vital Signs Online (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, 27 October 2008); “Alliance Calls for Only Energy-Efficient Lighting in U. S. Market by 2016, Joins Coalition Dedicated to Achieving Goal”, press release (Washington, DC: Alliance to Save Energy, 14 March 2007); DOE, Big Results, Bigger Potential: CFL Market Profile (Washington, DC: Energy Star, March 2009).

272

Ministry for the Environment and Natural Resources, “World First! Australia Slashes Greenhouse Gases from Inefficient Lighting”, press release (Canberra, Australia: 20 February 2007); Rob Gillies, “Canada Announces Greenhouse Gas Targets”, Associated Press, 25 April 2007; European Parliament, “Incandescent Light Bulbs: Environment Committee Backs Phase-Out Plan”, press release (Brussels: 17 February 2009).

273

International Energy Agency (IEA), Light’s Labour’s Lost: Policies for Energy-Efficient Lighting (Paris: 2006), p. 375; Deborah Zabarenko, “China to Switch to Energy-Efficient Lightbulbs”, Reuters, 3 October 2007; Greenpeace India, “India’s Light Bulb Phase Out: Setting a Smart Example”, press release (New Delhi: 25 February 2009).

274

Рейтинг розничных сетей согласно данным, взятым из публикаций: Deloitte, Feeling the Squeeze, Global Powers of Retailing 2009 (London: 2009); Walmart Stores Inc., “Greenhouse Gas Emissions Fact Sheet” (Bentonville, AR: 2009); Hillary Osborne “Currys to Stop Selling Incandescent Bulbs”, Guardian (London), 13 March 2007.

275

CREE LED Lighting, “Ultra-Efficient Lighting” — cм.: www.creelighting. com/efficiency.htm, просмотрена автором 17 апреля 2009; Navigant Consulting Inc., Energy Savings Estimates of Light Emitting Diodes in Niche Lighting applications (Washington, DC: DOE, rev. October 2008); Anthony DePalma, “It Never Sleeps, But It’s Learned to Douse the Lights”, New York Ttimes, 11 December 2005; “Mayor Villaraigosa, President Clinton Light the Way to a Greener L. A.”, press release (Los Angeles, CA: Office of the Mayor, 16 February 2009).

276

“Smart LED Lightening Makes Parking Garages Greener, Safer”, Environment News Service, 13 January 2009.

277

Срок службы светодиодов взят из EPA and DOE, op. cit. note 8 и из “Company Profile: Expanding LED Possibilities at Samsung Electromechanics”, LEDs Magazine, April 2007.

278

IEA op. cit. note 11, pp. 25, 29, 38; CREE LED Lighting, op cit. note 13.

279

Экономия электроэнергии высчитана на основе данных, приведенных в: IEA, op. cit. note 11, pp. 25, 29 и в: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 (Paris: 2008), p. 507; производство энергии электростанциями, работающим на угле, взято из расчета, что среднестатистическая электростанция вырабатывает 500 мегаватт и действует 72 % времени, производя, таким образом, 3,15 миллиардов киловатт/часов электричества в год.

280

Steven Nadel, The Federal Energy Policy Act of 2005 and Its Implications for Energy Efficiency Program Efforts (Washington, DC: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, 2005).

281

John M. Broder, “Obama Orders New Rules to Raise Energy Efficiency”, New York Times, 6 February 2009.

282

National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), China Statistical Yearbook (Beijing, разные годы), письмо, отправленное Джесси Робинсу, Earth Policy Institute, Дэвидом Фридли, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), DOE, 4 июня 2009 г.

283

“Final Energy Consumption” in LBNL, China Energy Databook, v. 7.0 (Berkeley, CA: October 2008); NBS, “Electricity Balance Sheet” in China Statistical Yearbook 2008 — см.: www.stats.gov.cn/english, просмотрено автором 21 июля 2009 г.

284

U. N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database — см.: esa.un.org/unpp, обновлено 11 марта 2009 г.; Greenpeace, “Your Energy Savings” — см.: www.greenpeace. org/international/campaigns/climate-change/take_action/your-energy, просмотрено автором 28 мая 2009 г.