Левое полушарие – правильные решения. Мыслить и действовать: как интуиция поддерживает логику - Фил Розенцвейг

McGeehan, Patrick. “It’s Official – This Is New York’s Hottest Summer.” New York Times, September 1, 2010, A16.

McMaster, Geoff. “School of Business Wins National Stock Market Contest.” ExpressNews, December 19, 2001, http://www.expressnews.ualberta.ca/article.cfm?id=1615.

Mintzberg, Henry. “We’re Overled and Undermanaged.” Business Week, August 17, 2009, 68.

Moore, Don, and Paul J. Healy. “The Trouble with Overconfidence.” Psychological Review 115, no. 2 (April 2008): 502–517.

Moore, Don A., John M. Oesch, and Charlene Zietsma. “What Competition? Myopic Self-Focus in Market-Entry Decisions.” Organization Science 18, no. 3 (May—June 2007): 440–454.

Moran, Callie. “Overconfident Romney Was So Sure of Victory That He Spent 25 Grand on Victory Fireworks.” Capitol Hill Blue, November 9, 2012, http://www.capitolhillblue.com/node/45630.

Murphy, Austin. “Guide to a Broken Tour: Tyler Hamilton Shines a Revealing Light on Cycling’s Drug Era.” Sports Illustrated, September 24, 2012, 18.

“No Sun, No Problem for Plane.” Associated Press in Shanghai Daily, May 4, 2013, A3.

“NTSB Suggests Alcohol Detection Systems on All New Cars.” CBS Local, December 17, 2012, http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2012/12/17/ntsb-suggests-alcohol-detection-systems-on-all-new-cars/.

O’Brien, Miles CNN Anchor Interview, “Veteran NASA Flight Director Discusses Book About Race to the Moon,” CNN Sunday Morning News, May 7, 2000.

Patterson, Orlando. “Our Overrated Inner Self.” New York Times, December 26, 2006, A35.

Pesola, Maija, James Politi, Dan Roberts, and Peter Thal Larsen. “Cingular Grabs AT&TW from Sleeping Vodafone.” Financial Times, February 18, 2004, 44.

“Vodafone Edges Ahead in AT&TW Bidding.” Financial Times, February 17, 2004, 24.

Pfeffer, Jeffrey, and Robert I. Sutton. “Evidence-Based Management.” Harvard Business Review (January 2006): 63–74.

Pinker, Steven. “Malcolm Gladwell, Eclectic Detective.” New York Times, November 15, 2009, BR1.Poulter, Ian. “Opinion.” Golf World (January 2011): 25.

Price, Richard. “An Essay Toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 53 (1763): 370–418.

Raghavan, Anita, Almar Latour, and Jesse Drucker. “Battle Intensifies for AT&T Wireless – Vodafone and Cingular Submit Revised Offers as Others Decline to Bid.” Wall Street Journal Europe, February 16, 2004, A1.

Raiffa, Howard. “Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It All Got Started and Evolved.” Operations Research 50, no. 1 (January—February 2002): 179–185.

Rasmussen, Heather N., Michael F. Scheier, and Joel B. Greenhouse, “Optimism and Physical Health: A Meta-analytic Review,” Annals of Behavioral Medicine, 37 (3) (June 2009): 239–256.

Richards, Carl. “Viewing the Glass as Half Full, but Not Too Full.” New York Times, March 18, 2013, http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/18/viewing-the-glass-as-half-full-but-not-too-full/.

Richtel, Matt. “List of Suitors Said to Narrow for Mobile Giant.” New York Times, February 11, 2004, http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/11/business/list-of-suitors-said-to-narrow-for-mobile-giant.html.

Roll, Richard. “The Hubris Theory of Corporate Takeovers.” Journal of Business 59, no. 2 (1986): 197–216.

Ruger, Theodore W., P. Kim, A. Martin, and K. Quinn. “The Supreme Court Forecasting Project: Legal and Political Science Approaches to Predicting Supreme Court Decisionmaking.” Columbia Law Review 104 (2004): 1150.

Rice, Xan. “Finish Line: An Olympic Marathon Champion’s Tragic Weakness.” New Yorker, May 21, 2012, 48–57.

Sabbagh, Dan. “Vodafone in долларов35bn fight for AT&T Wireless.” The Times, February 16, 2004, http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/article2103013.ece.

Sarasvathy, Saras D. “The Affordable Loss Principle.” Technical Note. Charlottesville, VA: University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, 2006.

Schaefer, Keith. “Natural Gas: Costs Go Down as Learning Curve Goes Up.” June 6, 2009. www.oilandgas-investments.com.

Simonson, Itamar, and Amos Tversky. “Choice in Context: Tradeoff Contrast and Extremeness Aversion.” Journal of Marketing Research 29, no. 3 (1992): 281–295.

Sirower, Mark L., and Sumit Sahni. “Avoiding the ‘Synergy Trap’: Practical Guidance on M&A Decisions for CEOs and Boards.” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 18, no. 3 (Summer 2006): 83–95.

Slusser, Susan. “Can’t Keep Beane Down: No More Talk of Moneyball, Please.” San Francisco Chronicle, July 12, 2009, B1–B7.

Sonmez, Felicia. “Biden Says Supreme Court Will Uphold Health-care Law.” Washington Post, April 1, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/post/vice-president-biden-predicts-supremecourt-wont-rule-health-care-law-unconstitutional/2012/04/01/gIQADBE8oS_blog.html.

Sorkin, Andrew Ross, Michael J. de la Merced, and Jenna Wortham. “AT&T to Buy T-Mobile USA for долларов39 Billion.” New York Times, March 20, 2011, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/att-to-buy-t-mobile-usa-for-39-billion.

Sorkin, Andrew Ross, and Matt Richtel. “Cingular Wins AT&T Wireless in an Early-Morning Drama.” New York Times, February 19, 2004, http://www.nytimes.com/learning/teachers/featured_articles/20040219thursday.html.

Spiegelhalter, David. “Tails You Win: The Science of Chance.” BBC4, December 20, 2012.

Staw, Barry M. “Leadership and Persistence.” In Leadership and Organizational Culture: New Perspectives on Administrative Theory and Practice, edited by Thomas J. Sergiovanni and John E. Corbally, 72–84. Champaign: University of Illinois Press, 1986.

Staw, Barry M. “The Escalation of Commitment to a Course of Action.” Academy of Management Review 6, no. 4 (1981): 577–587.

Stein, Joel. “From Doofus to Genius?” Bloomberg Businessweek, November 29–December 4, 2011, 101.

Stewart, James B. “Eight Days: The Battle to Save the American Financial System.” New Yorker, September 21, 2009, 69.

Stone, Mark Robert, Kevin Thomas, Michael Wilkinson, Andrew M. Jones, Alan St. Clair Gibson, and Kevin G. Thompson. “Effects of Deception on Exercise Performance: Implications for Determinants of Fatigue in Humans.” Medicine&Science in Sports&Exercise 44, (2012): 534–541.

Svenson, Ola. “Are We All Less Risky and More Skillful Than Our Fellow Drivers?” Acta Psychologica 47 (1981): 143–148.

Swartz, Jon. “San Francisco Giants Ride Techball to the Top.” USAToday, March 31, 2013, http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2013/03/31/giants-social-media-world-series-technologh/2013497.

Taber, Joseph John, F. D. Martin, and R. S. Seright. “EOR Screening Criteria Revisited – Part 1: Introduction to Screening Criteria and Enhanced Recovery Field Projects.” SPE Reservoir Engineering 12, no. 3 (August 1997): 189–198.

“The Tale of the ‘Winner’s Curse,’ Bidding Science Saved долларов долларов.” http://www.aapg.org/explorer/2004/12dec/capen.cfm.

Taylor, Shelley E., and Jonathan D. Brown. “Illusion and Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health.” Psychological Bulletin 103, no. 2 (March 1988): 193–210.

Terhune, Chad. “Home Depot, Seeking Growth, Knocks on Contractors’ Doors – CEO looks to stave off critics and gain new customers with building supply unit,” the Wall Street Journal, August 7, 2006 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115491714152328447.html.

Thaler, Richard H. “Shifting Our Retirement Savings into Automatic.” New York Times, April 7, 2013, BU6.

“The Winner’s Curse.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 2, no. 1 (1988): 191–202.

Tierney, John. “From Tinseltown to Splitsville: Just Do the Math.” New York Times, September 19, 2006, A25.

“Trend Analysis of the Sex Ratio at Birth in the United States.” National Vital Statistics Reports 53, no. 20 (June 14, 2005).

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Evidential Impact of Base Rates.” In Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, edited by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1982.

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science 185, no. 4157 (1974): 1124–1131.

US Small Business Administration, “Frequently Asked Questions About Small Business,” (2009) http://www.sba.gov/ADVO/stats/sbfaq.txt.

Vance, Ashlee. “Algorithms on the Prairie.” Bloomberg Businessweek, March 26, 2012, 37–39.

“Vodafone bids for AT&T Wireless: Vodafone and Cingular Square Off in Bids for No. 3 U. S. Wireless Firm at About долларов35 billion,” New York (CNN/Money), February 15, 2004, http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/15/technology/att_bids/.

Walsh, Michael. “Solar-Paneled Plane Completes First Leg of Historic Cross-Country Flight from San Francisco to New York.” New York Daily News, May 4, 2013, http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/all-solar-airplane-making-jfk-article-1.1335172.

Weinstein, Neil D. “Unrealistic Optimism about Future Life Events.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 39, no. 5 (1980): 806–820.

Welch, Jack, and Suzy Welch. “How Not to Succeed in Business.” Business Week, March 2, 2009, 74.

Whitacre, Edward E., Jr. Corporate Acquisitions Can Create Winners: A Case in Point. The CEO Series, Business Leaders, Thought and Action. St. Louis, MO: Washington University, Center for the Study of American Business, 1998.

White, Dominic. “Vodafone Looks to Next Target.” Daily Telegraph, February 25, 2004, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2878078/Vodafone-looks-to-next-target.html.

White, Paul. “‘Moneyball’ Principles Have Become Old Hat.” USA Today, September 21, 2011, 6C.

Wiggins, Robert R., and Timothy W. Ruefli. “Schumpeter’s Ghost: Is Hypercompetition Making the Best of Times Shorter?” Strategic Management Journal 26, no. 10 (2005): 887–911.

Windschitl, P. D., J. Kruger, and E. Simms. “The Influence of Egocentrism and Focalism on People’s Optimism in Competitions: When What Affects Us Equally Affects Me More.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 85 (2003): 389–408.

Wingfield, Nick, and Brian Stelter. “A Juggernaut Stumbles.” New York Times, October 25, 2011, B1.

Witt, Jessica K., Sally A. Linkenauger, and Dennis R. Proffitt, “Get Me Out of This Slump! Visual Illusions Improve Sports Performance.” Psychological Science 23 (2012): 397–399.

Wonacott, Peter. “Path to India’s Market Dotted with Potholes – Savvy Cola Giants Stumble over local agendas; KFC climbs back from the abyss,” The Wall Street Journal, September 12, 2006 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115801500763459902.html.

Wray, Richard. “Cingular’s долларов41bn Forces Vodafone out of AT&T Race.” The Guardian, February 18, 2004, 19.

Yoffie, David B., Ward Bullard, Nikhil Raj, and Suja Vaidyanathan. “VMware Inc. (A).” Harvard Business School Case 9-707-013 (2007).

Zenger, Todd R. “Why Do Employers Only Reward Extreme Performance? Examining the Relationship Among Pay, Performance, and Turnover.” Administrative Science Quarterly 37, no. 2 (1992): 198–219.

Zhang, Zhen-Xin, Gustavo C. Roman, Zhen Hong, Cheng-Bing Wu, Qui-Ming Qu, Jue-Bing Huang, Bing Zhou, Zhi-Ping Geng, Ji-Zing Wu, Hong-Bo Wen, Heng Zhao, and Gwendolyn E P Zahner. “Parkinson’s Disease in China: Prevalence in Beijing, Xian, and Shanghai.” The Lancet 365 (February 12, 2005): 595–597.

Об авторе

Фил Розенцвейг – профессор Международного института управленческого развития International Institute for Management Development (IMD) в Лозанне (Швейцария), эксперт в области стратегии и организации. Сотрудничает с ведущими компаниями. Розенцвейг шесть лет работал в компании Hewlett-Packard. До перехода в IMD был доцентом Гарвардской школы бизнеса. Степень доктора наук получил в школе бизнеса Уортон Пенсильванского университета. Автор многочисленных тематических исследований, регулярно публикуется в журналах Harvard Business Review, California Management Review, Management Science и Strategic Management Journal. Написанная им в 2007 году книга «Эффект ореола… и другие восемь иллюзий, вводящие менеджеров в заблуждение»,[366] была оценена Wall Street Journal как «глубокий взгляд на бизнес и бизнес-консультирование». Нассим Николас Талеб назвал ее «одной из самых важных книг по менеджменту всех времен».

Примечания

1

Нью-Йоркские футбольные команды. – Прим. пер.

2

Все цитаты Билла Флемминга взяты из интервью, которые он дал автору в сентябре и октябре 2010, январе 2011 и январе 2013 гг.

3

Patrick McGeehan, “It’s Official – This Is New York’s Hottest Summer,” New York Times, September 1, 2010, A16.

4

В конце концов затраты Skanska превысили 998 млн долларов, потому что заказчик внес ряд изменений, но затраты на исходный проект действительно не превышали указанную сумму, и проект оказался прибыльным для компании.